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Post by Indigo on Aug 25, 2015 22:40:32 GMT 1
To preface this, I follow that_shaman on twitter, he's a known data-miner for Guild Wars 2. For those who don't know what that is, basically it's someone who looks at new builds in depth and find all the hidden stuff. It can give you a cool preview of what's to come in the near future. This is especially interesting at the moment as a fair amount of Heart Of Thorns content is popping up for the Beta weekends. Anyway, that_shaman noted on twitter that data-mining can sometimes cause "mass hysteria". Specifically he was referencing that a datamined item showed that it could possibly contain the Power Cores which are used to create the Blades Backpacks So this piece of information has caused the price of all the cores to drop as much as 15 gold in almost an instant. Here's some links to the craziness. - Static Cores.
- Dynamic Cores
- and Synergetic Cores
So now is the time to grab some cores for that backpack. Prices for these things haven't been this low ever. I thought it was an interesting cause and effect due to speculation from data-mining. I also came up with the idea of having a thread of us sharing some things we've spotted on the TP that are a good deal. Or even just a thread with some "insider" trading tips. Here's a personal favourite "seller", the rare Unidentified dyes. The prices are a little in flux at the moment but you can usually make a tidy and consistent profit on yellow and purple dyes.
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Post by Rugiviet on Aug 25, 2015 23:54:21 GMT 1
Guess I jumped the gun 5 months early lol. Cost me near 190G for my 10 Red cores
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Post by Indigo on Sept 15, 2015 21:29:05 GMT 1
The Key Farming "Nerf"I was going to make another thread for this topic, but it seemed to fit here. Especially as some of the effects of the nerf will be felt hardest on the Trading Post, potentially. Key farming before today was relatively simple. The quickest and easiest way to farm a single key is to start a brand new Human Warrior (or Guardian) character and as fast as possible level to level 10, then complete the level 10 personal story. On the completion of a level 10 personal story you were guaranteed to get a Black Lion Chest Key. A key run could be as fast as one every 20 minutes with tomes of knowledge. Or without tomes, times would be 30-40 minutes per key, depending on the route and the method. Here's my key farming gear! What happened? The patch notes of todays patch contained the following: What that means? The quickest and easiest way of farming Black Lion Chest Keys is now limited to one per week, before today you could do it as much as you wanted, now it's just 1 per week! That means key farmers will have to look at alternative ways to farm keys. Level 40,60 personal story and Living Season 2 part 6 all give guaranteed keys. Map completion has a chance of giving the occasional key. But this is a lot more time and effort for the keys. But it's too early to tell what the plan is for key farmers is in the long run, they could form quick levelling and story groups but this would still take time. A lot more time than the original farm route. Why did you post this information in the TP thread?Well, one the primary effect this will have is, less chests will be opened. Which will have numerous effects on the Trading Post markets. To name a few I've considered. - More chests will be on the market for longer, likely driving the prices on chests down.
- There are some dyes only available via a black lion chest opening, prices on these will likely go up. (A list of those dye kits - Glint's Winter, Crimson Lion, Shadow, Flame and Frost Kits. {These change from time to time as well.})
- Less weapon skin ticket scraps, and tickets. Those already expensive weapon skins may go up in price even more.
- Mini are likely to be unaffected, there's plenty around at the moment, they may go up in price, slowly.
- Unidentified Dye Market, prices may go up as less become available, but, they are a somewhat rare drop from personal story bags, my best guess is they will go up a little, but probably not noticeable.
- The permanent "stuff" (TP Contracts, home mining nodes), these things are already very expensive, but with supply likely to drop, prices are likely to rise. Most of these items are... luxury items, players with a lot of gold are the only ones considering these.
My point is, with less chests being opened, supplies on all these items will fall, which in turn drives the price up. Though this will happen over a fairly long period. We'll see how things go, most of above is just a best guess based on my knowledge of Guild Wars 2, it's markets and the player base. We may find these issues never occur but the potential is there. None of this considers the fact key farmers may find another effective way of key farming. There was also the upping of random drops on the keys themselves which could negate all this. It's a case of "wait and see", but markets will always speculate.
I posted this here as it was a similar situation to the OP, where the market has been provided with new information and it has the potential to effect the market in the future for the long term. Something I found interesting, and something that effected me as I key farm from time to time and of course enjoy market trading. I hope you found this interesting, and I think I already have my next topic to write about.
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Post by Indigo on Oct 8, 2015 15:08:24 GMT 1
Spirit AlchemyWhat is "Spirit Alchemy"?
Spirit Alchemy is the process of using Spirit Shards to craft items in the Mystic Forge.
How is this related to the Trading Post?
Well most of the things I'm about to talk about will lead to items that can be sold on the Trading Post, usually for a good profit. Many of us have lots of unspent Spirit Shards and I thought talking about this would allow you to make some money from the often not used currency.
What is the process?
Spirit Shards are a currency we can use to buy items, most of which are used in Mystic Forge recipes. Most of these can be found in the official wiki but we have a couple of resources available to us. The one I will work with for the writing of this post is GW2Efficiency.com's Spirit Shards page. What GW2Efficiency does for us here is, identify all the crafting recipes that use Spirit Shard crafting materials and then sorts them by the most profitable item (per spirit shard).
GW2Efficiency is also smart, it identifies items that are cheaper to buy over crafting. For example, if you see in the Gift of Light for the Foefire's Power, the site identified that it would be cheaper to buy 500 Hardened Leather Sections and craft them into squares, rather than buy 250 squares straight up. It'll also show you how much the entire item costs to make from scratch and how much profit (after tax) you should expect. All the prices are based on TP orders.
My Spirit Alchemy Picks
Triforge Pendant - 30 shards, 220g craft, sells for 300g+ normally. Currently 323g sell price. Celestial Amulet, very cheap to upgrade to Ascended stats. Probably the one reason I keep a 400 Jeweller up, good way to use up gold ore, ruby, sapphire and emerald jewels. My personal favourite. Sells within a day usually.
Flux Matrix - 50 shards, 25g craft, sells for 40g+. Cool looking focus, pretty easy 10g profit. Little heavy on the shards but usually sells quick, only 10-12 on the market right now.
Jormag's Breath - 50 shards, 70g craft, sells for 110g+. Another cool looking sword, 30g profit, not too bad on the shards with the cost, Around 12 on sale right now.
Ones to stay away from.
The entire Mystic Weapon set. Yes, there are potential profits, but in my experience my sell orders take forever to go through. It just seems the interest isn't there at the right price for the sellers.
This is kind of 50/50 but upgrading tiered crafting materials. It has a random element to it, you aren't always guaranteed to make a profit, however it might be an option if you're looking to craft something with the end materials.
The Halloween style weapons. Unfortunately the resource we are using doesn't account for the cost of the recipes. This is ok with the Gifts used in Legendaries, it doesn't cut into your profit too much. However the Halloween style gifts are highly expensive on the TP. You're unlikely to make a profit on these weapons unless you make 10 or more.
Finishing up
I encourage you to check out how many Spirit Shards you have lying around doing nothing, then take a look at the GW2Efficiency site and see what you can craft. It's a relatively simple process with the resources available to us. In my opinion, it's easy money, especially if you have a bit of gold to invest into it.
GW2Efficiency GW2Shinies Spirit Alchemy Page
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Post by starrifyx on Oct 8, 2015 16:49:12 GMT 1
Thanks for that last post Indi, apart from upgrading sieges (which I don't even know whether it's worth to upgrade to then sell, but I do it just for the guild or for when I command), I never really looked into flipping it for money. I remembered making 3 Mystic Weaps for selling and yes it did take AGES. Will try those that you recommend tho, thanks!
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Post by Indigo on Oct 8, 2015 17:59:22 GMT 1
You can make money from upgraded sieges, mostly because all the materials you get are commonly found. Mithril, Elder Wood and Basic Siege you can pretty much get for free if you play enough. It's quite the time/clicking investment though, will take you a while to make a decent amount of gold.
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Post by Indigo on Oct 11, 2015 12:41:26 GMT 1
Just a small addition to my Spirit Alchemy post. Horsebeef asked a great question to me just now. He asked if the cost of recipes was included in our resource GW2Efficiency.com , unfortunately it doesn't. This makes the Halloween weapons not very profitable. I've added them to the avoid list with an explanation to why.
Thanks to Horsebeef for asking the question, it raised a good point I forgot to mention.
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Post by cheestoast on Oct 12, 2015 11:13:29 GMT 1
My tp selling window after discovering this spirit alchemy xD Already sold the Unspoken Curse sword for 104G Attachments:
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Post by Indigo on Oct 13, 2015 6:01:25 GMT 1
Very cool to see other people put the theory to practice, I hope you make some nice profits, those are all cool skins and should sell fairly quickly.
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Post by Indigo on Oct 13, 2015 8:10:56 GMT 1
Whilst you guys were drooling over the new Legendary weapons, I was taking a look at the other news post that appeared around the same time on GuildWars2.com - "Heart of Thorns Economy". In this post, John Smith discusses upcoming changes to the GW2 Economy. This obviously will have an effect on the Trading Post so I thought it was worth a mention here. The post in full is HEREand a small Q & A is HERESome points I picked out from the original post - John Smith feels the current economy has "reached a nice equilibrium". But with HoT we're to expect a massive change to that, new materials, new weapons, new items, new currencies.
- There's no promises on an instant or quick stable market come HoT. They will be "paying very close attention and will be looking out for any behavior that we think needs to be addressed"
- Legendaries and Precursors will no longer have a variable amount of materials need to craft them. They do feel that the amount of materials needed is immense and therefore will maintain the scarcity of materials, thus maintaining a value for them.
- Salvaging changes are coming, some materials will drop less, to maintain scarcity again.
- Dungeon Rewards, to avoid them being farmed easily the liquid reward is being lowered and shifted elsewhere, mainly to Fractals and Raids.
- Map Completion rewards will be more specific. In fact we know from playing the betas the in game map (M key) will show you the rewards you will receive on completing a certain map. The idea being that instead of buying certain materials, you'll instead go and complete a map instead.
- John Smith also noted there will be market opportunities "for the extremely savvy".
The Q&A is worth a read also if you're into this stuff, answers a few questions. Also clues you into the mindset behind all this. My best guess, first month after HoT will be a bit hellish for the TP with so many new tradable items. Expect a few balance patches that will include changes to drop rates.
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Post by Indigo on Oct 14, 2015 7:35:58 GMT 1
As a follow up to yesterdays post and something that is similar to the theme of the original post, as a result of the Economy News post a lot of speculation has occurred. Anet had acknowledged some broken markets and the reoccurring theme of the post was "scarcity", there was also the note on Salvaging changes. This has resulted in a lot of buying in the TP. It seems that players are looking at the heavily populated markets and making bulk purchases whilst the prices are low. Mostly crafting materials that you get a lot of due to salvaging, Thick Leather, Gossamer, Mithril. Prices on these materials have jumped up quite a bit as a result of all the buying Item | Before Sell Price | Price Now | # Sell Listings Before | # Sell Listings Now | Mithril Ore | 49c | 72c | 2,228,000 | 2,150,000 | Gossamer Scrap | 75c | 1s 14c | 3,366,000 | 2,845,000 | Thick Leather Section | 12c | 47c | 16,403,000 | 10,582,000 | Hardened Leather Section | 28c | 52c | 5,041,000 | 4,152,000 |
Data gathered from GW2Spidy.com (sell listings rounded to the 1000) It's also worth noting that the main crafting outputs of these items (Mithril Ingot, Leather Squares) have gone up in price also. The only commonly found material that hasn't changed in price is Elder Wood Logs.
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Post by Indigo on Nov 18, 2015 13:53:19 GMT 1
BLACK LION KEY FARMING LIVES!
Yesterdays patch added map completion rewards to Southsun Cove, it's a level 80 map, you get 4 rewards from completing, 2 Exotics, 10 karka shells and 1 Transmutation Charge OR 1 Black Lion Key. Now Southsun Cove completion is just 6 waypoints and 6 points of interest and is very do-able on a LEVEL 2 CHARACTER. I just completed on my level 3 Ranger and got a key.
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Post by Indigo on Apr 17, 2016 12:06:40 GMT 1
Upcoming Scribing Changes
On Tuesday we'll see the new quarterly update. We'll see changes to Fractals, a new raid hub (maybe), WvW changes, some living story related things and probably some other stuff we don't yet know about. One set of changes we'll see is to Scribing. ANet were quick to acknowledge that Scribing is expensive. Even with all the donations I received from Gankers I estimate I spent a few thousand gold getting to 400 level of Scribing. After that if I ever wanted to make something I would need to put aside a decent amount of gold to make it. I always said to people who wanted to do it, DON'T. It isn't worth the investment, you'll get to max level and then never use it because it costs too much to make a simple chair.
A short time after HoT release ANet announced they were looking into the cost of scribing. I remember around that time Rugi asked me the question, "How can they make Scribing cheaper?" For me it was changing some things. Make Coarse Sand related things cheaper, make Flax Seeds and Resonating Slivers more available and finally make pigments more available or change the ink well stacking. These are the items that break your bank when using Scribing. To explain a bit more in depth each one individually I'll give you some examples.
I want to make a bronze world boss trophy, so I'm going to need a Journeyman's Finishing Kit.
Ok no problem, what is needed for a kit?
You can see it's getting more complex already. Let's start of with the sandpaper.
Ok so ignore the paper here, let's focus on the sand. I need 5 sheets of paper. Now if I decide to farm the sand and not buy I'll need 200 Piles of Coarse Sand which means I'll need to get at least 2860 Piles Of Silky Sand to get the 200 I need. (Coarse Sand piles drop 70% of the time from Silky) Now that's a lot of time spent in Silverwastes and/or Dry Top. Even for a large guild working together this could take some time.
Let's buy some coarse sand instead.
2g 84s is a steal compared to all the time spent farming it.
Here's a lifetime of Coarse Sand on the TP. As you can see it's an item that's become more and more available and as a result is generally trending down in cost.
What are ANet doing about Coarse Sand? They are reducing the Coarse Sand costs in Sandpapers. A good decision, for those who perhaps don't want to hop on the TP they have to farm less, for those who do want to the price will come down as more will become available. If you're sitting on Coarse Sand and have no Scribing plans, maybe sell now.
Ok that's enough about sand. To the next item Resonating Slivers, now this can be the mostly costly material in making a Scribing item. With HoT we saw a new style of jewels come into the game where you could upgrade them by double clicking. Resonating jewels work in a similar manner in scribing, it doesn't cost you anything extra but you'll need the base materials to make the high end jewels. The higher the scribing level the more you need for one item. To explain, back to our World Boss trophy example. Our Journeyman's Finishing Kit needs a Journeyman's Scribing Kit.
Ignore the pen and we'll be back for the ink set later. This time we'll look at the Blotting Powder, each tier of Scribing Kit requires a level of blotting powder.
Luminous Dust is fine, but we need 5 Resonating Fragments. This is the 2nd tier of Resonating Jewel's to make 1 you'll need 3 Resonating Slivers. So you need 15 Resonating Slivers to make 1 trophy. Slivers currently are only earned from Guild Missions. You can also trade them on the TP. But because of the need for GM's they're quite the expense. And you can only earn a certain amount per week. As a result they've always been pretty expensive to buy.
As you can see the price has come down since the new year but it's generally held steady. Always being over 40s per. Let's say I'm not in a guild that does GM's and I need to buy my slivers. It'll cost me 6g just in Slivers to make our bronze trophy. As you can start to see the cost of scribing starts to stack up.
What are ANet doing about Slivers? They'll be "adding significant new supplies" of them. The best guess we could come up with when discussing this was World Boss rewards. I'm not saying this will be the case but it seemed like a smart idea when it was being discussed.
Finally lets go back to those ink sets. I now want to make a Woodfire Grill (as it better illustrates the issue) We'll need a Grandmaster's Finishing Kit and therefore a Grandmaster's Scribing Kit. Which also means we'll need a Grandmaster's Ink Set.
What's the problem with Inks? Well they all need to be stacked on previous tier ink sets. A tier 2 ink set needs to be made from a tier 1 set. Here's a crafting chain for the Grandmasters Set to show what I mean.
To craft a Grandmaster's Kit I need to craft a Simple into a Basic into a Fine and so on. You always need the Simple kit. As a result Brown Pigments are worth so much more compared to any other Pigments.
What are ANet doing to fix this? They're removing the chain, for example if I want to make a Grandmaster's Ink Set I will no longer need the Master's Ink set, instead just the bottles and the 2 pigments. That means low tier pigments should become more available and as a result the difference in costs of pigments should decrease. It also means general item/decoration costs should come down.
ANet did also mention "we’ll increase drop rates of certain other components." My best guess here is, flax seeds and pigments as they are the 2 that make sense in terms of scribing.
All in all this is good for the average player. A lot more people should be able to afford scribing in the future, and those that have scribing maxed out will be more encouraged to use it as it no longer costs them an arm and a leg to make a Flag. I hope this all made sense, if there is something that could be explained better let me know. Scribing is not always easy to explain to someone who hasn't experienced it because it is so different in mechanics compared to other crafting professions.
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Post by starrifyx on Apr 17, 2016 21:29:41 GMT 1
I am *so* glad for the removing of chains of Ink Set, it really deterred me from even gathering the materials for you to make me the cushion decoration I wanted. It just gets so much more complicated when you find that there's a whole network of items to expand from each Ink Set.
Interested to see when all that comes down in prices.
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Post by starrifyx on Apr 30, 2016 4:48:11 GMT 1
I realized something tonight and I am not entirely sure what's happening.
So I've been saying that since a week ago when I ordered 2 stacks of Incandescent Dust (T5) at 3s 7c and 3s 8c, it has now jumped all the way up to 4s14c today. And it seems to be endlessly going up.
But scrolling down the list, almost all buy orders are at 250. Apart from the 19500 buy orders at 3s 80c. Is someone trying to drive the T5 dust market up? :/
Really hope Anet do something about this, because getting a stack of amalgamated gemstones is becoming increasingly difficult.
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